The Blue Dogs have crazy power this congress; they can tip the balance either way on key votes. These moderate Democrats will say they need conservative voters’ support to win elections but they better recognize that the bulk of their votes come from average Democrats—many African Americans.
Herman Cain wrote a book about “they think you are crazy” and he was correct. The Blue Dogs know that most Democrats vote for them because they have a “D” on their jersey—without deep analysis of their voting records. Secondly, Blue Dogs generally have a positive record in their home areas from good work in a previous position. At some point, that past goodwill wears out.
Enter the Obama supporters. Many Obama supporters (OS) are not loyal Democrats but loyal to the inspirational mission and effort of the new President. Why do you think they kept all that email and cellphone information. If and when a Blue Dogs goes against the administration, the call goes out to the OS in that district—bypassing Pelosi and Reid on the Hill.
In 2010, Blue Dogs who supported Bush for years and gave Obama a rough time might find themselves with a junior Obama as a primary candidate. That battle would force a Blue Dog to openly side with the Democrat Team; then, Michael Steele rolls out a new GOP hybrid—conservative but somewhat moderate; designed with Palin and Obama in mind.
Please, please, please, let me help pick the next GOP congressional candidates in Georgia contested races. (Here’s a hint: start with the Young Republicans.) If Steele produces a few Republicans who will respectfully work to improve Obama programs by pointing our concerns, these candidates could do great numbers with the African American community in 2010.
Yestersday, President Obama signed the SCHIP bill into law. Blue Dog Rep. John Barrow of Georgia was at the signing while Rep. Jim Marshall of Macon voted against the bill again.
Listen to this sage and free advise, the GOP candidate against Marshall should be a Chamber of Commerce type, pro-business moderate from Macon—White or Black—who has a much past goodwill as Marshall.
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